COVID-19

Bulletin #112

Total confirmed cases       40790    Increase   1202      2nd highest
Total deaths                            842      Increase       13
Total recovered                   20246     Increase    190
Total active                           19522     Increase     999
Total tests                            178838   Increase    4087   Day positivity   29.4% Most tests

Spread of new cases

DN                                         426
Azua                                         27
Barahona                                5
Duarte                                     16
Elias Pina                                 1
Espaillat                                  82
Independencia                       1
La Altagracia                           36
La Romana                              15
La Vega                                    36
Maria TS                                   9
Peravia                                     8
Puerto Plata                           12
Hermanas M                            1
Samana                                    3
San Cristobal                           31
San Juan                                   9
SPM                                          26
Sanchez Ramirez                    43
Santiago                                   38
Hato Mayor                              1
Santo Domingo                      302
Not Specified                           74

Dreadful-I thought Italy had been the worst but this is truly awful.

Any news from the new president on plans to control this virus?

Italy was far far worse in many ways. BUT  this is clearly not good here.

The incoming president can only voice his wishes and work with the  current president. He has NO power officially until Aug  16!

My guess is that the current government will take actions its health advisors agree with the new government transition team of health advisors.

The statistics arent good and are getting worse. Santiago looks in a bad way.

The expectation of the population is new curfews and controls.

Quite ironic. Many expats left in March fearing the situation that is now unfolding in DR. But they werent up to date with the real situation developing here and flew back straight away when flights resumed. Now they will experience first hand what they pannicked about in March.

Not a good situation for all of us.

In terms of expats all we see where we are on the North Coast is condo after condo, villa after villa closed up, locked up with many for sale signs.  Some of these signs were there before but there many more new ones.  There are of course some who doggedly refuse to leave but frankly in many residential areas it's very very quiet.  So sad.

I thought some of might might find this interesting.  Very surprising how many countries are allowing flights from DR to their countries.

https://www.officeholidays.com/coronavi … n-republic

That is the normal state on the north coast in the "off season" . IF you are used to seeing  things in the  "high season" months then  seeing it closed down can be a shock. I lived on the north coast for  8 of my years here in total and that is quite normal.

I am sure though it is worse than normal!  Absolutely. And it will not bounce back in October / November with our snowbirds like we are used to either!

Lennox - it is a bad situation and getting worse. I really hope they do something soon!

Barbados has new idea/Plan
------------------------------------------------------------

     The scheme for remote workers could boost an economy heavily reliant on tourism

British holidaymakers’ favourite Caribbean island is offering a 12-month remote working incentive to entice foreigners.

Prime minister Mia Amor Mottley proposed the “Barbados Welcome Stamp” scheme, which would give visitors the option to work remotely in the country for a year at a time, during a speech last week.

Ms Mottley said the stamp would allow travellers to “come and work from here overseas, digitally, so that persons don’t need to remain in the countries in which they are.”

This could be an ideal opportunity for Britons to immerse themselves in Bajan culture, which it is hard to fully experience during a one- or two-week stay.

It would also offer a short-term solution to the island’s loss of tourism spending, which accounts for 40 per cent of its GDP. Some 30 per cent of the workforce is employed by the industry.

“You don’t need to work in Europe, or the US or Latin America if you can come here and work for a couple of months at a time; go back and come back,” said Ms Mottley.

The concept is now being refined by the Barbados government.

The island’s tourism industry has been hard hit during the pandemic with flights grounded and the cruise industry at a standstill – no major lines are returning to the Caribbean until August at the earliest.

Barbados is included on the British Government’s list of countries exempt from UK quarantine. It is also excluded from the Foreign Office warning against all but essential overseas travel.

Commercial flights to Barbados are resuming on July 12, from Canada, with British Airways offering direct flights from Gatwick starting on July 18, initially once a week.

Virgin Atlantic, the other airline that runs a direct service from the UK, is set to restart flights from Heathrow on August 1, again with a weekly service.

Arrivals to Barbados are required to take a PCR antigen test for Covid-19 within 72 hours of their visit and to present a certificate confirming that they are Covid-19 negative (passengers from CARICOM countries – 20 states in the Caribbean region – can take the test up to one week prior to travel).

Travellers that arrive without having been tested will be checked for the virus at Barbados airport.

Hotels, bars, restaurants and shops have reopened on the island, while final curfew restrictions were lifted on July 1.

Barbados is among the islands least affected by the Caribbean’s hurricane season – which runs from June to December – and is hit, on average, by one hurricane every 20 years.

The country has recorded 98 cases and seven deaths as a result of the virus among its population of 287,000.

There is no easy solution for the Caribbean islands that rely on tourism.

The current situation is as the link below but does not tell the whole story for the islands in general:

https://www.loopnewscaribbean.com/conte … date-634-3

The levels of testing are so low in some islands that they do not know the real situation.

Nearby TCI had no cases a couple of weeks back and still has closed borders until 22nd July, But they got the testing equipment and started testing the key workers in the population and are now finding cases. The bars and restaurants are being found to be the problem where covid19 spreads, along with the likes of Western Union.

As soon as these islands open up to incoming travellers, they can expect more problems and their health services are very fragile at best.

absolutely right

read any of these.... poverty isn't a good thing for this

https://www.google.com/search?client=fi … h+and+poor

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN DEL
VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA  INFORME #94

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1T7VSQl … D_2u3/view

Santiago had a quiet day in terms of testing but the positivity was very high. Espaillat and La Vega had very high positivity too. Sanchez Ramirez was perhaps the worst in terms of positivity. Even Samana only 9 tests and 3 positive. There has never been much testing in Samana which could be hiding a much bigger problem, just like POP 12 cases from 31 tests.

WillieWeb wrote:

absolutely right

read any of these.... poverty isn't a good thing for this

https://www.google.com/search?client=fi … h+and+poor

here's the Telegraph article

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal … n-america/

Just on ABC news that several MLB players from DR flew to Miami and now have tested positive!

Just heard Disney World re opens today in Orlando Florida-  Unbelievably mad.  Increases of new cases yesterday a record of 60,000 in the US

Tomorrow - I think --- but still.....

Disney is being STUPID!

CMD asks President Medina to take urgent measures to avoid sanitary collapse

https://noticiassin.com/cmd-solicita-al … sanitario/

SANTO DOMINGO.- The president of the Dominican Medical College, Waldo Ariel Suero asked this Friday to President Danilo Medina to take urgent measures to mitigate the advance of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.

"This request is documented in the great advance that the disease has had in recent weeks and that as of yesterday, the last bulletin showed about 1,220 cases and thirteen deaths in 24 hours, figures that are really worrying," he reported.

He said that the President of the Republic must act urgently and not cross his arms, "the CMD asked him earlier this week to resume the state of emergency and intervene in some provinces such as Santo Domingo, Santiago and other areas affected by the pandemic "

“It is painful to see how it takes between 3 and 4 weeks for patients to undergo a PCR test to determine if they have COVID-19 or not; patients fight for space in the crowded ICU. Many people are dying and the epidemic continues to advance in gigantic steps. There is a national cry with all this problem. We cannot continue with our arms crossed. The economy cannot be above the life of any Dominican. The operations being carried out by the Ministry of Public Health in the neighborhoods are not giving results. There is an urgent need for a national meeting of different actors to participate to find a solution or an alternative to alleviate the progress of this disease. The situation is really dire ”, he added.

Will Medina do anything or just sit with his arms crossed!  I wonder what he and the new president have been discussing!  Is he constrained by the incumbent?

Experts call for return confinement for covid-19

https://hoy.com.do/expertos-piden-volve … -covid-19/

.......Healthcare On his side, Dr. Féliz Cuello recommended preparing a three-month period program that allows not only to flatten the epidemic curve, but also that covid-19 is not a public health problem. It also recommended declaring the first month of quarantine and fifteen days of a complete and strict curfew, starting at two in the afternoon, until 5 in the morning of the following day. Likewise, to practice, in the first month, 4 thousand daily tests throughout the national territory, in order to identify all the clinical and subclinical cases that are present in the country.
Obtain the necessary equipment and supplies that allow the carrying out of the indicated tests.

Just got this from the Italian Embassy:

"Which are the main rules for travel to/from Italy?

From July 9 to 14, all persons who – in the previous 14 days – travelled to or transited / stayed in the following countries are not allowed to enter Italy, namely: Armenia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Brazil, Bosnia Herzegovina, Chile, Kuwait, North Macedonia, Moldova, Oman, Panama, Peru, Dominican Republic. The only exception to this rule is for Italian citizens or nationals of EU and Schengen Member States, UK,  Andorra, Monaco, San Marino or the Vatican City State and their close family members (cohabiting lineal relatives, spouse, civil or cohabiting partner), provided that they were resident in Italy since before July 9,  2020.

All persons travelling to Italy from any foreign location are required to provide the carrier, or  law enforcement officers if they are stopped for checks, a self-declaration"

José Joaquín Puello warns study projects seven thousand deaths by COVID-19 for October

The neurosurgeon doctor rejects the opening of restaurants and calls on authorities to re-establish curfew with restrictive measures and not to open schools

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … AG20045410

Bulletin #113

Total confirmed cases      41915      Increase    1125
Total deaths                           864      Increase         22
Total recovered                 20830      Increase      584
Total active                         20221      Increase      519
Total tests                         182263      Increase     3425    Day positivity   32.9%

Spread of new cases

DN                                    406
Azua                                   21
Duarte                                22
Elias Pina                             1
El Seibo                                2
Espaillat                              18
La Altagracia                      56
La Romana                        20
La Vega                               38
Maria TS                              18
Monte Cristi                        3
Peravia                                15
Puerto Plata                       10
Samana                               12
San Cristobal                     44
San Juan                             17
SPM                                    30
Sanchez Ramirez              29
Santiago                            100
Valverde                               1
Monsenor N                        3
Monte Plata                        6
Santo Domingo                244
Not Specified                      9

Brutal and again testing is down from the high.  Positivity is HUGE!

Growing calls from medical profession for curfews and this one seems to have traction to close up shop at weekends 24 hours.

Conasalud requests state of emergency and closed quarantine due to increased COVID-19

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … FH20050621

The National Health Coordinator (Conasalud) calls on the Dominican authorities to decree a state of emergency and a closed quarantine that includes the entire weekend, due to the impact of COVID-19.

"We call on the acting President, Danilo Medina, and the recently elected, Luis Abinader, to agree and decree a state of emergency and a closed quarantine with a curfew on weekends from Friday at 5: 00 pm until Monday at 5:00 am, for 15 days, ”demanded the representative of the National Union of Nursing Services (Unased), Sol Amantina Delgado.

That will mean chaos for the rest of the week in the shops and supermarkets and probably riots

Expect coordinated actions in the next few days.

https://m.noticiassin.com/comision-de-t … -covid-19/

Fingers crossed!

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN DEL
VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA   INFORME #95

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1w9zS4C … sChW6/view

Samana 12 cases, 22 tests. Maria TS 18 cases, 30 tests. Santiago 100 cases, 216 tests. SPM 30 cases, 58 tests. Espailat 18 cases, 39 tests. The regional test positivity is very high in many places now. DN has more cases but lower positivity. More testing is needed in the provinces.

Wow !!

Hovering in the 50% zone !!!

As was expressed by the WHO yesterday, without a uniform response to covid19, the global situation is going to deteriorate and become very dire. That makes sense with a virulant and increasingly transmittable mobile virus in a global economy.

The USA has entered the 60ks a day and as Fauci predicted may soon reach the 100k zone. Some mayors are returning to stay at home. That is the only proven way to get numbers down and reduce the again growing death tally and medical services collapse.

Iran said it cant afford a new shutdown. As the Telegraph article WW posted we can see all poor countries like DR have a dilemma too.

Airlines worldwide are slashing jobs seeing reduced travel demand. Tourism is next.

From a health perspective and imo our longer term future, countries like DR have to go through another shut down or the virus will eventually bring such countries to total collapse socially, economically and medically.

The world needs a uniform approach and that includes massive debt relief and financial help for poorer nations so they can keep their populations fed with some measure of health management.

Of course you're right in most of what you say.

Unfortunately shutting down a whole country again is riddled with problems.  But to get the World to act as one I believe is impossible.  WHO have lost a lot of credibility in many quarters, ignoring the US.

As I said you're right Lennox but sadly human beings don't act like that-they can be very selfish

The poorer countries have much more risk....

harder to contain
insufficient resources
poverty forbids time off work
close quarters

a real smorgasbord of problems

Just seen this from the UK embassy in SD on Twitter......  In spite of the pandemic:

"Planning your next Dominican adventure? Captivating architecture, a delicious gastronomy scene and rich history, Santo Domingo is waiting to be explored".

WillieWeb wrote:

The poorer countries have much more risk....

harder to contain
insufficient resources
poverty forbids time off work
close quarters

a real smorgasbord of problems

Not so clear cut imo.

Developed countries have populations that are more independently minded and so could be harder to manage in change.

Developed countries have more urban dwellers in general and that is where covid19 thrives. Tall appartment blocks are virus havens and hotspots - Melbourne as the example. DR has few such buildings in poor barrios and the apartment blocks are for the middle class and these communities have suffered badly in SD rather than the barrios of tin huts. Higher density is a factor plus common core areas which are great for transmission.

Poorer counties will have populations used to an authoritarian past and can be more submissive and in the coming months may adapt better.

Bars, clubs, gyms, discos, restaurants and spectator sports are very much the realm of the developed world but such venues are being seen as virus spreader hotspots. DR like much of the developed world does not have these facilities except in the big cities and better off areas. Take away food and colmado drinking or siting on the malecon is the way of life in DR.

The longer term effects on economies and income will affect both the developed and developing world. it is a day to day survival in developed countries but borrowing and debt is going to be the scourge in developed countries very soon with high unemployment and lack of social care.

It is a global economy whether we like it or not and the developed world does need the developing word for many essential resources.

I always thought DR would weather this storm better than most but greed of the better off, hunger and politics took over. It can still get back to a better place but it isn't going to be without more sacrifice pain imo.

Good topic and thanks for that Telegraph link...a good read

Absolutely interesting conversation.  It's not cut and dry at all!   

I hope that they government does what is needed NOW the get this back down to manageable levels.   It won't be easy. It won't be comfortable.  Waiting will make it harder and harder. 

Interesting to note that all "private" hospital beds are used.  All public are not yet but getting closer by the day.   This has hit the middle and upper class first and hardest and / or the poorer without insurance are simply suffering at home.

Social distancing. Wear a mask. Stay home

Bulletin #114

Total confirmed cases       43114      Increase   1199    3rd highest
Total deaths                             880      Increase       16
Total recovered                  20996      Increase       166
Total active                          21238      Increase     1017
Total tests                           185853     Increase     3590     Day positivity  33.4%

Spread of new cases

DN                                     402
Azua                                    36
Barahona                            17
Dajabon                              10
Duarte                                 14
Elias Pina                              5
Espaillat                                5
La Altagracia                       38
La Romana                          21
La Vega                                51
Maria TS                              11
Pedernales                           2
Peravia                                 15
Puerto Plata                         20
Hermanans M                       1
Samana                                  9
San Cristobal                        20
San Juan                               23
SPM                                       22
Sanchez Ramirez                 27
Santiago                              147
Monsenor N                          7
Monte Plata                          4
Hato Mayor                           8
San Jose                                 2
Santo Domingo                   277
Not Specified                         5

Widely spread now. High positivity. Active cases leaping ahead of recovered. more deaths after record day total yesterday. Over 4.1k in hospital and 226 ICU

Samana 13 tests 9 positive, Santiago 147 cases 261 tests. La Romana 21 positive 45 tests. Sanchez Ramirez 27/47

Reports of many people with symptoms not being able to get tested. Plenty of politicians getting tested now and some turning up positive.

Regarding our talk above/earlier

I am sure the barrio cases are under reported..... big time
How can we possibly get a grip on the 'real' numbers ?

Suffice to say - It ain't good !!

I thought The Telegraph article laid it out well too
Maybe I'll go back - reread it - and post a synopsis

planner wrote:

Absolutely interesting conversation.  It's not cut and dry at all!   

I hope that they government does what is needed NOW the get this back down to manageable levels.   It won't be easy. It won't be comfortable.  Waiting will make it harder and harder. 

Interesting to note that all "private" hospital beds are used.  All public are not yet but getting closer by the day.   This has hit the middle and upper class first and hardest and / or the poorer without insurance are simply suffering at home.

Social distancing. Wear a mask. Stay home

here's a first hand experience
-------------------------------------------------------------

It was very hard for me to get the PCR test. That tells me that the ones who get tested are exhibiting clear symptoms so off course the positivity rate will be high.

My story: I had positive Rapid Test on june 1. Go started on ivermecting regimen on day 3. Started symptoms on day 3 at night.
I had Rx for PCR test on day 3. Had to be done with Referencia lab and they must come to your house. They wont even look at you at the lab itself. So I went home and was told to send the Rx, my cedula and the insurance card to the lab with Whatsapp. I did and got acknowledgment of receipt. They say they will call to schedule the test. I waited and waited, called and called..no answer. Then they finally answered the phone .. they had lost my request. I sent everything again. They received again. The next day they scheduled the test for the following day. I have to pay 500 pesos for the cab they will take. Cannot eat half hour before the test, but they only tell you the test will be after 8am. So you wait, and wait, and call them at 10am. They are on their way. Then they cannot find the place even with clear instructions. Then they call me again wanting confirmation that I will indeed pay for the cab. When I said yes, they finally showed up. Nose swab performed using the same long Q-tips for both nostrils. No throat swab although i had sore throat. Got negative results 1 day later. All together about 2 weeks from onset of symptoms. I almost gave up several times and a poorer person would not/could not pay for cab ride.
All of this to say that I understand a high positivity rate when it is so hard to get tested (although mine was negative).

I'm not a big fan of Herd Immunity....At least haven't been
This is food for thought
The Telegraph again
---------------------------------------------------------------

lockdown
Toby Young
11 July 2020 • 3:33pm
Toby Young

At the beginning of March, a lively debate took place about whether Britain should pursue a strategy of "herd immunity" – allowing coronavirus to spread until so many people had developed antibodies that it no longer posed a threat to public health – or place the entire country under lockdown. As is well-known, Boris Johnson initially embraced the former, saying the public needed to take the virus "on the chin", then performed a U-turn and imposed a full lockdown on March 23.

But recent data coming out of New York reveals that this was a false dichotomy. Sixty-eight per cent of people who took antibody tests at a clinic in the corona neighbourhood of Queens received positive results, suggesting that, in this area at least, the population is already close to achieving "herd immunity". This is in spite of the fact that New York imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the United States.

This fits with other data showing that the life cycle of the epidemic in each region or country where there’s been a viral outbreak follows a very similar pattern, regardless of whether or not a lockdown was imposed or how severe it was. For instance, if you plot the rise and fall in the number of new cases in Sweden on a graph, and then compare it to the same data in the UK, the two lines are almost identical, in spite of the fact that Sweden never imposed a lockdown. The same is true if you compare the trajectory of the virus in the 43 US states that locked down with the seven that didn’t.

In one respect, this is good news: it means a "second wave" of Covid-19 is unlikely and we can dispense with pointless social distancing measures, such as mandatory masks on public transport. The reason the number of new cases dwindles away to almost nothing after a fixed period of time – literally nothing in some regions – is probably because the majority of the population has been exposed to it, not because transmission has been interrupted by imprisoning people in their homes.

This isn’t immediately obvious because most people who catch the virus are asymptomatic, but that appears to be what’s happening. Some will have developed antibodies without knowing they had the disease, while others will have a natural immunity because they’ve already successfully fought off other coronaviruses, such as the common cold. People in that latter category will be immune even though they won’t test positive for Covid-19 antibodies. That means that the population of London is probably approaching herd immunity, even though only 17 per cent tested positive in the most recent seroprevalence survey.

But the bad news – at least from the Government’s point of view – is that this means the lockdown was unnecessary. So the loss of life that will result from suspending cancer screening programmes and postponing operations will turn out to have been avoidable, as will the catastrophic economic damage.

As it becomes clearer that the British population will soon achieve herd immunity, just as the population of Corona has, and the lockdown has done nothing to mitigate the impact of the virus, people will begin to ask tough questions of the Government. And Boris won’t be able to say we only know this now with the benefit of hindsight because he recognised the wisdom of the "herd immunity" strategy back in March. Whatever his excuse is, it will have to be better than that if the Conservatives are going to survive the reckoning.

Positivities of over 10% for people showing 2 or more symptoms of covid19, the protocol for getting a test, is considered high by the WHO based on information received from a multitude of countries. Here ricos bypass the protocol to get tested for peace of mind. It is hard for ordinary people to get tested and the results are days old.

Anybody who lives here and has family around the country knows there are lots of people known now with symptoms of the virus and few are getting tested or going to clinics or hospitals.

The small village where I am completing my house in deep rural Monte Plata was virus free until elections, now plenty of people are showing signs of fever etc. I had planned a trip there tomorrow. Now  I wait.