COVID-19

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ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN DEL
VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA  INFORME #96

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WG5bW0 … FUwo4/view

Very high death rate in Pierto Plata province

Bulletin #115

Total confirmed cases       44532       Increase  1418      New record
Total deaths                            897        Increase       17
Total recovered                  21459        Increase   463
Total active                          22176       Increase    938
Total tests                           189391      Increase   3538   Day positivity   40.1%   

Spread of new cases

DN                                     323
Azua                                    25
Baoruco                               2
Dajabon                              4
Duarte                                27
Elias Pina                            13 
El Seibo                                 1
Espaillat                                7
La Altagracia                       47 
La Romana                          37
La Vega                                21
Maria TS                              22
Monte Cristi                          2 
Pedenales                             5
Peravia                                  6
Puerto Plata                        30
Hermanas M                        9
San Cristobal                        32
San Juan                               82
SPM                                      26
Sanchez Ramirez               20
Santiago                              182
Valverde                               2
Monsenor N                         8
Monte Plata                         1
Santo Domingo                  266
Not Specified                      218

Brutal numbers now and we have not seen the worst yet. the spread will keep increasing even though We know they have less tests at the beginning of every week so headline numbers will drop in next couple of days.

Local lockdowns wont solve this national problem but I bet Santiago will get ring fenced very soon.

Dreadful.

Lennox is the real figure not:   Total active      22176       Increase    938 as opposed to total cases as 50% or so have recovered?

I'm glad I got my dentist trips out of the way  before this... in STI

As I posted... there was not much compliance re masks/distance in many areas
Big stores - Bravo & Nacional were fine

But the general population - not so much

ducketts wrote:

Dreadful.

Lennox is the real figure not:   Total active      22176       Increase    938 as opposed to total cases as 50% or so have recovered?

Yes we have more active than recovered now and the increase is the total increase less deaths and increase in recovered.

The active pool of covid19 cases is growing rapidly and to that we add the the 40% asymptomatic and the under reporting due to insufficient testing.

And then understand the real transmission rate (or R value) is likley to be very high, so each active case is passing onto several others undetected and untraceable due to no test, track and isolate.

The active cases and rate of transmission has to be reduced drastically to stop the increasing rate of spread and you do that by isolating people from one another - and you know what that realistically means in DR because they don't understand social distancing.

This gov't MUST DO SOMETHING!   What the hell is wrong with them???

Last night I lost another friend to this virus and  another is in ICU and not expected to survive!   

I am sad and overwhelmed and these IDIOTS do nothing!

There is no easy solution for the politicians. They are responsible for this mess in large part.

There is expectation of an improved life with a new government but if covid19 is not controlled that will not happen easily. And the only proven way to suppress the virus and the virulant transmission we now have is lockdown and that will probably create social disorder.

We can do nothing so adapt to avoid or at least minimize people contact and stay safe.

covid19 is here in DR at high levels long term without decisive tough action which I don't expect.

The local social media has gone wild with expectations of a 24 hour curfew. Ive had several people today telling me to stock up.

I doubt that but nightime curfew and maybe 24 at weekends are possibilities imo. And stopping of inter provincial non essential travel would be a good move. Buses stopped perhaps. Publico carros too I hope. And of course much tighter controls on flights from badly affected countries.

we can only hope the new officials act more appropriately than the old ones.

no pressure from an upcoming election and the strong public support should be a positive.

fingers crossed.....

glad I left for a bit....

For what it's worth just spoken to our taxi driver about this curfew on social media.  He's heard nothing but is putting his feelers out .

It's only rumors so why put out feelers? 

If we limit essential services again we get a different set of problems. Shutting down on weekends and open during the week causes other issues. 

They cannot wait for the new govt, that is over a month away.  These guys need to grow a pair and act now.  Otherwise it just won't matter!

Planner,

Are the hospitals in Santo Domingo at full capacity?

Governments mandate, regulate and re-enforce but if they are not going to do their job, then we have to!  We already know the minimum we have to do.   Isolate, social distancing, masks, gloves, dis-infect and do not go out of your home unless its absolutely and vitally necessary. 

Leave all of the numbers, and stats and all the rest of the mumbo jumbo that half the people do not understand anyways or are just plain tired of hearing (sorry, no disrespect intended).  Use your energy, our energy by pressing on social media and any other way you can think of to get out the word to as many people as you can: STAY HOME.  Those we don't reach are probably going to get the virus and at least 1% of them will surely die.

We don't have time left to just "hope" and have faith etc.  We must ACT or we will be just like Florida in another couple of days.

STAY HOME and pass it on!  It's the best solution we have right now and we know it works.

God Bless.

Do you really believe the locals are going to listen - if you do then I bow to your greater wisdom.
I don't believe social media is the answer either. I believe Lennox has made sensible suggestions, it's now up to the elected Gov.  You can't shut everything down in a country like DR but you can take sensible & decisive action-it's a fine balance. Disney World re opening is crazy and sets a bad example.
But you're message is right stay home.

Steverino - all private hospital covid and ICU beds are full yes.  All public are very close to full as.of yesterday's stats.  So today I expect they are full too.

We must be careful as well to walk a line.  I am furious with the govt but cannot say much as I am not yet a citizen.   

I can tell people to stay home, so I do!

Planner, you may not be a citizen but you still have rights.  Ducketts, who said I "believe" the locals will pay attention to social media?  The point is there is very little we can really do and if you have a better solution, let's hear it.  Being married to a Dominican,  I have many Dominican contacts and I do hear what locals are saying and despite all of those that are not following the guidelines there are many that are screaming the STAY HOME slogan and pushing the masks etc.  Heck, many are selling masks all over the place, so again, if you have access to social media...use it or do something that is positive besides complaining...imho.

You are right there is little we can do especially when the political leadership has set terrible examples about use of face masks and social distancing over the last few weeks.

Providing up to date information on the pandemic helps both locals and expats who get confusing messages from traditional and local media as well as government. People are now waking up to the gravity of a situation that was developing weeks ago across the WHOLE country and not just SD. Headline figures hide facts but when testing, positivity and active cases were considered rather than just death rate the story was different. Places like Samana, POP and the east have big problems too.

Awareness is so important for everyone. People move governments to act even lame ducks. The medical profession is applying pressure because they see the chaos first hand. People want actions now to protect their health and surveys are showing that.

Social media is reflecting that anxiety in DR.

But we must refute those voices of persons who diminish this virus and its severe impact on our lives too. Ignorance of a few -
notably  Americans - is leading to health problems and the death of many.

I don't believe I can persuade any Dominican using social media but I can influence friends and family here by keeping them updated and showing the importance if social distancing and other health measures. No amount of mask use or voluntary social distancing will now solve our problem. Enforced measures nationally will be needed.

We are in this together for the long haul and now from a very bad place compared to Europe that took the pain earlier.

Stay safe.

DominicanadaMike,  I absolutely agree.   We do have rights, but,  we do not have the right to criticize publicly this government, so we need to be careful. That was my only point.

I use my social media all the time to spread the real information, as best as I  have it. I share research and science ALL the time.  I debunk and  post correct info whenever possible.

And I lead by example.  Our offices are closing back down. I will not take the chance on my staff getting sick.

We cannot change everyone's minds.  We cannot do that anywhere.  We all can simply do our best in our chosen homeland.

I read this today about moving things outdoors--- as much as possible

This paragraph struck me -

As Megan McArdle, a Washington Post columnist, has written: “Move everything outdoors — as much as possible and much more than has been done already.” Yes, the weather will sometimes be a problem. But “we’re long past searching for ideal solutions,” McArdle notes. “We’re now hunting for adequate.”

A perfect solution might be too much to ask for -
we just need to move on - carefully !!!

Absolutely, we are all on the right track, the more people hear it the more will believe it.  The sound of music carries through the land and once it sinks into everyone's brain this pandemic will be over...

and although you may not want to criticize the government, you do have the right.  Under the international human rights act signed by the Dominican government, you have the right to freedom of speech (just to keep it legal)...

I thought some of you might find this article interesting.


https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigk … e6db5ba809

Well you may have the "right"  just as this and future governments have the right to refuse your residency application and or renewal.  Keep that in mind!   They have and will continue to refuse people!

I will keep my  criticism much less intense than I actually feel!

WillieWeb wrote:

I read this today about moving things outdoors--- as much as possible

This paragraph struck me -

As Megan McArdle, a Washington Post columnist, has written: “Move everything outdoors — as much as possible and much more than has been done already.” Yes, the weather will sometimes be a problem. But “we’re long past searching for ideal solutions,” McArdle notes. “We’re now hunting for adequate.”

A perfect solution might be too much to ask for -
we just need to move on - carefully !!!

Makes absolute sense in DR, but you still have to social distance.

But before that you need to get the transmission rate down to a manageable level and then plenty of testing, track, trace and isolate.

Bars, pubs, restaurants, discos, clubs, sports arenas, cinemas and malls are going to be problematic going forward especially if no effective long term vaccine is not found. But putting some outdoors and spread out can work. But as the UK found, drunk people don't social distance so there lies another problem.

It was a very early suggestion but eco tourism appears to be part of the future. The key is low density living and recreation and outdoors wherever possible.

It baffles me that the beaches can't be open....
food shacks for outdoor eating

safer than opening a bar/restaurant....

Altho - I guess the beaches are open now.... in the freefall days

We went yesterday and we were the only ones there-but that's not Sosua

It doesn't baffle me that beaches were closed.

Go to any beach or indeed bathing place at rivers preferred by locals and there are massive conglomerations of people at weekends especially with zero social distancing.

Nagua is a prime example but so are the beaches of Boca Chica and Juan Dolio, San Cristobal, Pelenque, Los Patos, Barahona to name a few. Whilst the beaches of Las Terrenas and Cabrera may be quiet even at weekends and Punta Cana too now, but that is not the case generally.

Look at what happened in California, Florida and Bournemouth, UK. Responsible behaviour is lacking everywhere when it comes to beaches and has been a cause of major virus spread.

Coronavirus warning from Italy: Effects of COVID-19 could be worse than first thought

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- … t-12027348

Italian doctors are warning that COVID-19 is not just a respiratory disease but a killer affecting the whole body.

The long-term effects of COVID-19, even on people who suffered a mild infection, could be far worse than was originally anticipated, according to researchers and doctors in northern Italy.

Psychosis, insomnia, kidney disease, spinal infections, strokes, chronic tiredness and mobility issues are being identified in former coronavirus patients in Lombardy, the worst-affected region in the country.

The doctors warn that some victims may never recover from the illness and that all age groups are vulnerable.

Infection rates have lessened but Italy is seeing the long-term effects COVID-19 has on survivors

Infection rates have lessened but Italy is seeing the long-term effects COVID-19 has on survivors

The virus is a systemic infection that affects all the organs of the body, not, as was previously thought, just a respiratory disease, they say.

Some people may find that their ability to properly work, to concentrate, and even to take part in physical activities will be severely impaired.

The physicians warn that people who do not consider themselves in a vulnerable group and aren't concerned at contracting the disease could be putting themselves in danger of life-changing illnesses if they ignore the rules to keep safe.

They stress that the need for social distancing, hand washing, and masks is as important now as it ever was.

The warnings come amid growing concerns in northern Italy that a second wave of the virus could be imminent. Doctors in two of the main hospitals in the region have reported a handful of new cases of severely ill people with respiratory problems.

"At first, initially, we thought it was a bad flu, then we thought it was a bad flu with a very bad pneumonia, it was the phase when you came here, but subsequently we discovered that it is a systemic illness with vessel damage in the whole body with renal involvement, cerebral involvement," he told me in the now silent COVID-19 emergency room that was overwhelmed a few months ago.

"So we are seeing other acute manifestations of renal failure that require dialysis; or stroke, and then acute myocardial infarction, so a lot of complications or other manifestations of the virus.

"And also now we see a significant proportion of the population with chronic damage from the virus."

One of the few positives emerging from the pandemic that caused havoc to the health service here was the creation of a unique environment where doctors and experts in different fields found themselves working together for months, effectively learning new skills. That co-operation is helping the understanding of the virus.

Dr Emanuela Catenacci is a neurosurgeon at Cremona Hospital and when we first met her in March she had been co-opted to work on the intensive care wards during the worst of the outbreak.

She is back on neurology, but crucially, whereas in the past she would have treated patients completely independent of other departments, now she can see the link. That link is COVID-19, and it's a multi-organ killer.

"In our hospital now we have a practice with immunologists, who are checking these patients, especially the most severe, those with the most severe illnesses, and they are checking not only lungs, but all the systemic manifestations of COVID pathology," she told me.

"The virus is a systemic infection, some of our apparatus organs have the biggest manifestation, such as lungs as we know, but also brain, skin, and sometimes we have vasculitis, so it's not [just] high respiratory or low respiratory infection, it's not finished [at] that," she said.

The Italian doctors' findings in their patients mirror a recent study carried out at University College London.

Researchers identified serious neurological complications arising from COVID-19 including delirium, brain inflammation, stroke and nerve damage in 43 people aged 16 to 85.

Some of the patients had experienced no severe breathing problems at all, with the neurological disorder being the first and only sign that they had coronavirus.

An intensive testing and follow up analysis of all survivors has been launched in Bergamo. Teams of doctors examine those who have recovered on a constant basis, trying to track the changing properties of the virus.

"To those who don't respect the rules, I wish they could have a week of what I felt, a week of feeling as bad as I have been," he told me.

"Perhaps then they understand that they cannot underestimate the many warnings and mandatory rules we have been given."

The doctors carrying out the follow-up and testing programme say they simply do not know enough about the virus to predict what is going to happen next.

"We've also seen forms of asthma develop after coronavirus infections. We for sure know the damage of coronavirus is caused by inflammation, and asthma and other respiratory diseases are inflammatory diseases, and there are also some inflammatory diseases in our body that can be developed and triggered by coronavirus.

"Simple coronavirus pneumonia is something that patients will recover completely from, from a radiological point of view, but probably the biggest change is inflammation. I mean, we have seen inflammation in all of their bodies, vascular systems, and respiratory systems, so we think we have to tackle inflammation in these patients even when they recover from the acute phase of the disease."

Doctors believe that even the youngest and mildest infected are at risk of their lives being changed forever, and it could take years to become apparent. Whole workforces could become less productive as a consequence.

The advice from Italy is simple: Don't get infected.

Frightening.

I wonder if there regional/country variations in this due to local conditions etc

This is not the first report of multiple impacts of covid19. Brain damage, thrombosis, kawasakis disease, cancer impacts, renal and bowel impacts - the list is growing.

We are only just learning more everyday about this virus which started having significant effects less than 5 months ago. Italy was one of the earliest countries affected badly so the research there is real. They discounted the certainty of even and good immunity from anti bodies too which is being confirmed elsewhere now.

It is very early days, but the best advice is take steps not to get it - and your friends and family too.

And that Sky report is from right wing Murdoch media too!

Yes just watched the program on Sky News.  Very frightening.

Bulletin #116

Total confirmed cases        45506       Increase    974
Total deaths                             903        Increase        6
Total recovered                   22441        Increase    982
Total active                           22162        Decrease    14
Total tests                            192360      Increase    2969      Day positivity     32.8%

Spread of new cases

DN                                   246
Azua                                   22
Barahona                           1
Duarte                                10
Elias Pina                            4
El Seibo                               1
Espaillat                             24
La Altagracia                      41
La Romana                        22
La Vega                                7
Maria TS                              2
Pedernales                        11
Peravia                               12
Puerto Plata                       21
Hermanas M                        8
San Cristobal                      20
San Juan                             25
SPM                                     11
Sanchez Ramirez               6
Santiago                              96
Santiago R                             1
Valverde                                1
Monsenor N                         5
Monte Plata                          2
Hato Mayor                          1
Santo Domingo                 175
Not Specified                      201

Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests

Exclusive: King’s College London team found steep drops in patients’ antibody levels three months after infection

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ … y-suggests

I am not that optimistic about a vaccine and immunity from the medical reports I have been reading but this may dash some of those hopes even more.

Update from SD -  there is no sign outwardly other than masks being  worn.  Almost no social distancing and the minute alcohol is involved everything is forgotten.

Personally - I have been exposed. one of my employees called me this morning to say he has tested positive with the short test and they did the  regular one to confirm. He has multiple symptoms!    Everyone who had contact with him last week is now assuming they are contagious, including me.  Now headed home to self quarentine for  2 weeks or until his full test comes back Negative.

Everyone has been sent home to self quarentine for  14 days!  This is critical,  unless we are told otherwise WE all have to assume we are contagious! ALL OF US.

Good article in El Dia.....

High positivity rate Covid-19 is not associated with increased tests

https://eldia.com.do/alta-tasa-positivi … e-pruebas/

SANTO DOMINGO .- Unquestionably, the total reopening of the economy brought about the avalanche of infections that have multiplied during the past two weeks.

In the last 12 days corresponding to the entry of the fourth phase of the de-escalation that started on July 1, Covid-19 produced 12,119 new infections.

When extracting the percentage of these positives from the 38,201 total of PCR tests that were processed in that period, it is placed at 31.72%, that is to say that of every 10 samples taken, 3.2 were positive for the virus.

In this phase, tourism reactivated its commercial activities with the arrival and departure of flights, the opening of restaurants and hotels and more similar operations. Also the initiation of sports practices, such as gyms, whose platform can produce significant crowds.

However, during the preliminary phase from Wednesday, June 17 to 30, 9,282 new infections emerged from a total of 39,594 tests, when extracting the positive relationship, the amounts show a percentage of positivity of 23.44%, indicating that in those 14 days , of every 10 samples taken, 2.3 were positive.

Although the two weeks of phase four have not yet finished, the increase in positivity is exponential, since the difference between the periods is 8.28%, which indicates that the total reopening triggered an acceleration in the spread of the virus.

In order to make an even comparison of the first 12 days of phase three and the 12 days that have elapsed from the fourth, the margin of the positivity rate in the latter is much greater. This is because in the first 12 days of phase three, 7,711 people were infected and 33,673 samples were examined for a positivity rate of 22.9%, which further increases the difference between the periods, which is 8.82%.

Based on the fact that the Minister of Public Health, Rafael Sánchez Cárdenas, mentioned that the epidemiologically accepted positivity rate is the average obtained from the last four weeks of virus incidence.

But still the increase is evident. According to the official gazettes, the average positivity rate for the 14 days of the third phase was placed at 18.83%, while that of the fourth phase at 24.32%. Currently the positivity provided by the Ministry is 26.22%, which is 4.79% higher, than the figure with which phase three ended (21.43%).

This exponential increase is limiting the capacity of health centers, many of which have announced that they are at their maximum capacity. In this regard, the Health Minister attributed this unusual rise to economic openness and the holding of elections, which although the 14 days necessary to measure its exact impact have not elapsed, is an associated factor.

The truth is that the infections have been triggered because the virus is in an aggressive and unstoppable stage of spread in focal points of the country and not due to an increase in the amount of tests being processed, being evidenced in the aforementioned figures.

Based on the above, the trend is that cases continue to increase, since the impact of the agglomerations produced in the presidential elections must be expected, whose influence generated a relaxation of the measures in citizens who were not afraid to go to vote.

In this sense, Sánchez Cárdenas announced that he will propose to the Executive Power the enactment of a regulation to produce arrests and fines for citizens who fail to comply with social distancing measures and the correct use of masks, which is mandatory.

He said that military and police actions will be established to immediately sanction these people, since he will not allow them to continue violating these health mandates with an active pandemic in the country.

However, the General Health Law 42-01 in its article 153 only establishes sanctions of fines that range from one to 10 minimum wages that could reach 100,000 pesos as a maximum penalty, according to the government's minimum wage. But nowhere in the law does it allow the arrest of people for these causes.

From what I am reading this afternoon, I doubt if the current government or health minister will do anything significant nationally to control the rapid spread of covid19 other than try to apply the health law edict more strongly with fines and by isolating places like Santiago and barrios of SD, as well as highlighting social indiscipline, and increasing hospital beds. The new government team will prepare for when they take over on 16th August with an audit of beds and medical supplies first on the agenda....to be expected I guess.

https://noticiassin.com/podrian-instalar-cerco-sanitario-en-santiago-para-frenar-expansion-del-covid-19/

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … LD20101309https://listindiario.com/la-republica/2 … to-domingohttps://noticiassin.com/sp-atribuye-a-i … samientos/

I guess no one wants to take hold of this 'hot potato' right now.

Stay safe.

There is a lot of hype in play in relation to development of covid19 vaccines. Of course there are commercial interests in play.

WHO has just put out a document summarizing the current status of vaccine development:

https://www.who.int/publications/m/item … e-vaccines

Download the link.

There are two vaccines ahead of the others incluing the Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine.

But we now read Russia has developed one even faster. But that is doubted.

Normally to confirm the effectiveness and reliability of vaccines it takes 2 years after proving trial effectiveness but under current circumstances that time may not be followed.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- … t-12026917

What was it w/ the Polio vaccine ---
30 yrs to eradicate it ??

Ain't no fast fix in sight -- IMO

So the police and military are out there now  stopping people in the street for not wearing their masks.  Then crowds gather and the arguing starts.  COUNTER PRODUCTIVE.

And,  what are they doing? FINING them?  Really and who has the money to pay this when they cannot feed their families. STUPID WASTE OF RESOURCES AND TIME!

Bulletin #117        Tuesday low testing normal

Confirmed total cases         46305     Increase     799
Total deaths                              910     Increase          7
Total recovered                      23134   Increase      693
Total active                             22261    Increase        99
Total tests                             194461    Increase     2101     Day positivity    38%

Spread of new cases

DN                                       196
Azua                                        8
Barahona                               1
Dajabon                                  3
Duarte                                    5
El Seibo                                  33
La Altagracia                         14
La Romana                            14
La Vega                                    3
Maria TS                                  8
Monte Cristi                           8
Peravia                                    1
Puerto Plata                            3
Samana                                  80
San Cristobal                          20
San Juan                                  16
SPM                                           4
Sanchez Ramirez                    22
Santiago                                   64
Monsenor N                             5
Monte Plata                             11
Hato Mayor                               1
San Jose                                     1
Santo Domingo                       118
Not Specified                            160

Samana 89 tests, 80 positive. Monte Plata 12 tests, 11 positive. Santiago 134 tests, 64 postive. Sanchez Ramirez 37 tests, 22 positive. El Seibo 42 tests, 33 positive.