What is the economic forecast of Brazil?

Vlad,

Brazil for some time now pops in and out of sixth place in terms of the world's largest economies. One month the UK is in the lead and the next month it's Brazil. I don't see things changing dramatically in the near future and certainly the economy here will not shrink.

Economic growth here, while it may not be quick, clearly is steady and generally exceeds the cautious predictions made by the government regarding growth.

Certainly the economy would grow at a much more accelerated rate if the government did away with a some of the absurd bureaucracy, abusive taxes and complex processes that impede investment and thus economic growth. I do not envision that happening any time soon. Sadly, while in most other countries an investor can start up a business, register it and get it up and running in a month or so (in many cases) and do so singlehandedly or with minimal help; here in Brazil the process takes anywhere from six months to a year and can not be undertaken without an accountant and lawyer assisting.

Central Bank regulations remain a double edged sword too. Really a mixed blessing. On one hand it was the complex banking regulations that spared Brazil from the brunt of the sub-prime crisis allowing the country to be the first to recover and come out of the crisis in a much better position than other countries. On the other hand the banking system is one of the most complex, bureaucratic and expensive in the civilized world. It is almost impossible for foreigners to open a personal bank account here unless they have permanent status in the country. Business accounts depend upon the company having a CNPJ (the government regsitration number) and I don't know the details for a foreigner without permanency obtaining a CNPJ, or if it is even possible. The bureaucracy involved in start-up here is the main reason behind the fact that many foreign investor here choose to simply by out an existing (registered) business rather than start up a new business.

Brazil is, and will remain, a wonderful place to invest. It is not the place to make a quick buck. If one is prepared to invest for the long term then good ROI can be achieved. Short term investments "hot money" is discouraged by the 6% tax the government levies on foreign investment. While some investors may complain about the tax there is no doubt that it helps keep the currency and economy stable.

Cheers,
William James Woodward - Brazil Animator, Expat-blog

Great article Gene. Thanks so much for your input, you always seem to have something that's right on point.

Sad to say that Brazil spends approximately 1/6 of its GDP just to feed the bureaucracy. I doubt that the politicians here even want to change that. Until sweeping reforms actually take place and corruption is really addressed in some serious way not much is ever going to change and Brazil will continue to lag behind other contries.

No wonder that the people of this country invented the "Jeitinho Brasileiro", it is really a sad comment on our society that such measures are actually necessary.

Cheers,
William James Woodward - Brazil Animator, Expat-blog.

Thanks for the info guys seriously.  I dont know how much goes on behind the beautiful landscape of Brazil. ALl I know is about the US darkside.  But, I wont let this deter me from living my life in another country...wherever money is there will be corruption. Thanks again

Gene,

That the problem with a country that has a Penal Code that hasn't been revised since before I was born.... and I'm 63. But, hope is on the horizon, they are thinking of revamping the Penal Code, who knows maybe they'll put some teeth into it.

Cheers,
William James Woodward - Brazil Animator, Expat-blog