Corona Quarantine for returning expats to Vietnam

I doubt, that home quarantaine in an apartment block will be a choice. Especially, since the centralized quarantaine looks like the most  successful strategy for Vietnam.
However, I have seen that there different standards of centralized quarantine facilities, just not sure, if this is an option for everyone. There is little published during the past few weeks

No, at home is only allowed for diplomats and official visitors.  All others have to go to central quarantine. 

On top of that, unless you are "Foreign investors, experts, skilled workers, business managers, officials, and Vietnamese students learning abroad" you aren't coming here period.

I live in HCM for 6 years now, have fresh TRC 3 years.

Lutz26 wrote:

I live in HCM for 6 years now, have fresh TRC 3 years.

If you are already here why did you ask about returning expats then?  It's hard to answer a question without relevant details.  Or are you needing to activate your new TRC?

This quarantine stuff is total BS. If Vietnam and other quarantining countries ever expect tourists to return, they have to end this medieval practice. Lots of experts say quarantines are totally counterproductive and endanger the people under quarantine, especially when you're putting healthy people in same housing as sick people.

hyagly256 wrote:

This quarantine stuff is total BS. If Vietnam and other quarantining countries ever expect tourists to return, they have to end this practice. Lots of experts say quarantines are totally counterproductive and endanger the people under quarantine.

There are experts on both pro and con of every issue.  As one can use experts to argue for and against everything under the sun, I wouldn't put too much weight in their opinions.

One thing we can say is without strict quarantine policy, Vietnam would not be able to maintain the record of zero death so far.  There hasn't been any new case within the country in the last 34 days.  A few cases happened recently were people coming from other countries; they tested positive and were immediately put under quarantine upon arrival.  From Day One, none of the quarantined people has came to harm so I don't see how the quarantine endangered them.

Tourism is one thing EVERY country suffers and will continue to suffer until this pandemic is over for real, whether or not they have a policy of quarantine-upon-arrival. 

People don't travel because they need to have the departure country, the destination country, and any layover country to lift the travel restriction.  It's not one country's doing that will change the travellers' mind and spur them into action.

Travellers also will not travel again for a long while because they're afraid of the risk of infection on the plane, at the airports, at the destination. 

Last, but probably more important than most, many people do not have the means to travel anymore when their income has been reduced because of the pandemic.

I read somewhere that tourism is only 6% of Vietnam's GDP so even if you completely scratch that they are still forecasting 5% GDP growth for 2020.  I think most countries would take that.

Not sure about the number, but I remember somehow a similar one. 6% is a lot, especially when considering it's cheap (low quality) tourism for low prices. Cheap will hibernate anyway for a longer time or disappear completely of the brochures. Costs have risen and will continue to raise - Pay a lot for cheap holiday, that will fail. Further thousands of cheap tourists, they lost job and/income and won't travel anyway.
I personally think, that Vietnam might consider bilateral agreements with other countries, also successfully in the Corona fight, and the reminder of countries - a full quarantaine for the time being.
This could already bring back two of the native strongest tourism sources. I think about China and Korea.
For Vietnam it's more likely economic, to ignore some cheap tourism dollars than risking the distinct advantage, it has now.
A lot of industry will move out from China - and there is chance to compensate for the loss of some tourism

hyagly256 wrote:

This quarantine stuff is total BS. If Vietnam and other quarantining countries ever expect tourists to return, they have to end this medieval practice..

SteinNebraska wrote:

I read somewhere that tourism is only 6% of Vietnam's GDP so even if you completely scratch that they are still forecasting 5% GDP growth for 2020.  I think most countries would take that.

Could that have been my post that was removed from another thread, I think maybe the Visa extension one?  The 6% is a big increase from the 4% in prior years but not something that Vietnam can't do without.  Another factor is that a large part of that 6% is internal tourism.  Lots of other manufactured goods and raw materials are still moving.  If anything the loss of revenue due to the drop in world oil prices may be a larger factor but that is speculation on my part.  I don't know where this info should be posted other than by starting a new thread but I won't do that just to refute another post.  Maybe it could go in one of the threads asking when the borders will open but in both cases I am replying to another existing post.

SteinNebraska wrote:

I read somewhere that tourism is only 6% of Vietnam's GDP so even if you completely scratch that they are still forecasting 5% GDP growth for 2020.  I think most countries would take that.

Update on my post from the other day.

https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/business/20 … 54679.html

Article says 12% of GDP is from tourism but "Tourism raised 726 trillion dong (25.46 billion pounds) last year, nearly 12% of Vietnam’s 2019 GDP, but while barely 17% of the 103 million travellers were foreigners, they spent slightly more than domestic counterparts.

Based on revenue half of the money was foreigners so that is where my 6% came from.

Tourism or from tourism. There are fine differences/or even not, with loads of variables.
They spend money in Bui Vien - that is less tourism but catering and other dodgy side "businesses" . All depending, on who makes his/her statistics and for what purpose.
The Netherlands make/made about 12% of heir GBD from tourism - that is likely 11.99% in Amsterdam alone and there are roughly 90% foreigners (felt number). There are simply "no" locals.
That Vietnam makes a similar number, hard to imagine

Tiny_63 wrote:

The Netherlands make/made about 12% of heir GBD from tourism.
That Vietnam makes a similar number, hard to imagine

It’s not a similar number when the two GDP are not similar:

The Netherlands GDP in 2019:  $951 billions;  12% is $114 billions
Vietnam GDP in 2019:  $261 billions;  12% is $31 billions

It' still remains proportional. Just the amount differs. 12% here or 12% of XXXX there are equal, ignoring the decimals and/or newer/different sources of informations.
in reality, that would be almost 10th Dollar just made by tourism in Vietnam.
Vietnam has sure a long way to reach this. Tourists (and expats) in Vietnam are just crowded in very small areas. Outside those areas, tourists are rarely seen.

"That Vietnam makes a similar number, hard to imagine"

Huge difference in numbers, but potential for growth here higher than the EU. Since Brexit and now Corona the EU is really struggling. A lot of other nations looking at the disaster financially caused by Corona and seeing higher numbers of people against the EU.

The UK already talking about serious recession, and other countries inside the EU in a worse situation.

As much as Trump tries, Asia especially China and of course VN have a huge surplus of manpower and can afford to produce high quality products at a lower price.

For me.. I would back Asia to recover quicker than the west

SteinNebraska wrote:

Article says 12% of GDP is from tourism but "Tourism raised 726 trillion dong (25.46 billion pounds) last year, nearly 12% of Vietnam’s 2019 GDP, but while barely 17% of the 103 million travellers were foreigners, they spent slightly more than domestic counterparts.

Whoever collected the data may not know how Vietnamese travellers spend their money. 

Ask any group of Vietnamese travelling domestically how much they spend in their trips, they would give you a number that is much higher than the cost of hotels, food, tours, and transportation (the number shown in tourism revenue reports).  Did they spend the difference in souvenirs (which are also in the reports)?  No, not many Vietnamese buy refrigerator magnets, shot glasses, or T-shirts that bear the name of their holiday destination. 

So what do they spend their money on?  Local products and food.  Where do they spend their money?  At local markets where incidentally, no one is ever keeping track of income from tourists let alone reporting it. 

For example:

In Phu Quoc, they buy fish sauce, pepper, abalone, melaleuca mushroom, fresh and dried seafood, local fruits and pastries at local markets.

In Nha Trang, they buy fish sauce, bird nests, fish maw, mango cake, agarwood, fermented pork rolls, dried seaweed, and lemon chili salt at local markets.

In Da Lat, they buy candied fruits, tea, coffee, local produce -- strawberries, avocado, sweet potatoes, etc. at local markets.

In Hanoi, they buy green rice flakes, candied fruits, lotus tea, local fruits and pastries, ceramics, silk, mostly at local markets.

I would safely guess that 25% - 30% of their expenses are spent on local products and food that they take home, and those number are not included in the revenue from tourism reports.  Therefore, I wonder if the statement "while barely 17% of the 103 million travellers were foreigners, they spent slightly more than domestic counterparts" is truly correct.

Personal example:  Two weeks ago, our combined family of 8 adults and one child spent 4 days 4 nights in Da Lat.  We travelled in our own car and rent a 4 bedroom villa.  We ate out 5 times/day (3 meals, a drink break, and late night snacks), not counting early morning coffee for the men.  We paid the entrance fees to 4 tourist attractions.  The common expenses (which the city would count as revenue from tourism) were split into thirds with each party paid $350.  However, my husband and I spent another $300 on the stuff that we bought to take home, which the city wouldn't know at all since the merchants wouldn't consider the revenue as from tourists.

Ciambella wrote:

SteinNebraska wrote:

.....


Personal example:  Two weeks ago, our combined family of 8 adults and one child spent 4 days 4 nights in Da Lat.  We travelled in our own car and rent a 4 bedroom villa.  We ate out 5 times/day (3 meals, a drink break, and late night snacks), not counting early morning coffee for the men.  We paid the entrance fees to 4 tourist attractions.  The common expenses (which the city would count as revenue from tourism) were split into thirds with each party paid $350.  However, my husband and I spent another $300 on the stuff that we bought to take home, which the city wouldn't know at all since the merchants wouldn't consider the revenue as from tourists.

This pretty much my idea. what exactly is a spending by a tourist? Much more than Hotel and selected sightseeing is difficult to track, leave alone with a precision, typical for Vietnam.
However, tourists are eating, drinking shopping, travelling from A-B and they just mix and blend with the locals on many of their activities.
There are sure no comparison figures like for Da Lat/Nha Trang without any tourists. Nobody even would know a rough number for the real local residents

"Tourism raised 726 trillion dong (25.46 billion pounds) last year, nearly 12% of Vietnam’s 2019 GDP, but while barely 17% of the 103 million travellers were foreigners, they spent slightly more than domestic counterparts." it's an extract from https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/business/20 … 54679.html

Some maths possible can estimate sure more precisely.
Total International tourist nights: a few more than the local population
Estimated average stay nights p/p: 21 (to fit in tourist teachers, which might be doing a bit longer)
Average yearly income in Vietnam: USD 2500.00 or 2300 GBP === creating 88% of the GDP
That would leave a day per foreign tourist ~ 230 GBP or ~ 250 USD

Either there is huge mathematical mistake in my calculation or they unlikely to spend this kind of money.
My guess is about 100-120 GBP for the big spenders and about 50-60 GBP for the backpackers

very easy: To go to EU for some health reason and for some business, then go back to VN.

Ciambella wrote:

I would safely guess that 25% - 30% of their expenses are spent on local products and food that they take home, and those number are not included in the revenue from tourism reports.

What makes you think that those numbers aren’t included? A lot of bureaucrats are busy doing maths and producing statistics that show all kinds of numbers, I would think that there are at least very good estimates established about these kinds of expenses.

Kurterino wrote:

What makes you think that those numbers aren’t included? A lot of bureaucrats are busy doing maths and producing statistics that show all kinds of numbers, I would think that there are at least very good estimates established about these kinds of expenses.

I don't just think, I know they're not included because most transactions as I described (in post #17) happen at the local markets where the locals buy their goods every day.  Those markets have many stalls (the one in my old neighbourhood in Saigon has about 200 and it isn't a very large market), each is owned by one family and there's not one book of receipts among all of them. 

So, unless the government places one bureaucrat in front of each stall with a calculator, there's absolutely no way for the authority to come up with an estimation.  The vendors are the only ones who can tell, but why would they bother?

hyagly256 wrote:

This quarantine stuff is total BS. If Vietnam and other quarantining countries ever expect tourists to return, they have to end this medieval practice. Lots of experts say quarantines are totally counterproductive and endanger the people under quarantine, especially when you're putting healthy people in same housing as sick people.

This is a reckless comment! You somehow think you know more than the Vietnamese government! You have the same mindset as American out protesting to have their city reopen during an outbreak. Vietnam has re-opened while most of America is starting to partially open with infections/deaths still rising. Why would Vietnam re-open to allow infected tourists/travelers infect the country which will cost more than the economic gain of tourism?

I saw on the Vietnamese news yesterday that the Vietnamese government is working on the "Quanrantine Process" for new incoming foreigners into the country.  The intitial recommendation is to use Phu Quoc as arrival camp for those 14-day quarantine periods.   It is still early on the government's planning/discussion.  Its not official just yet.
The news channel i saw was "Khoe Tu Nhien"; for those that were curious.

Wiinnddyy wrote:

I saw on the Vietnamese news yesterday that the Vietnamese government is working on the "Quanrantine Process" for new incoming foreigners into the country.  The intitial recommendation is to use Phu Quoc as arrival camp for those 14-day quarantine periods.   It is still early on the government's planning/discussion.  Its not official just yet.
The news channel i saw was "Khoe Tu Nhien"; for those that were curious.

According to this article (from which, for some reason, I can't copy text on android)  the discussion at the steering committee for COVID-19 prevention was centered on the need to expand tourism domestically while continuing to restrain it internationally.

One suggestion that appears to have been made was that ONLY Phu Quoc would be open to International tourism initially.

It is almost amusing that some people think that Vietnam will give up its COVID-19 status in exchange for international tourism.  Whether it is 6% or 12% of GDP really doesn't matter.  It is not worth the price of infection.  I live in a place where external tourism is 45% of the economy and where unemployment is the highest in the nation as a result.  Our state government is retaining a 14 day quarantine for at least until the end of June.  Our local transmission rate is almost nil, but most everyone understands that if we lift the quarantine, the rates will soar.  Hawaii may not have a choice after all but Vietnam does and I really doubt that Hanoi would give up their COVID-19 free status for such a small slice of the economy.  Vietnam has an export driven economy but it features manufactured goods and raw materials.  People can go back to work in the factories, oil fields and mines now with little risk.  Sure there are segments, and even cities that will be hurt by the continued block on tourism but overall Vietnam can last at least until there is a vaccine which could happen during early 2021.

You make good points

Ciambella wrote:

Kurterino wrote:

What makes you think that those numbers aren’t included? A lot of bureaucrats are busy doing maths and producing statistics that show all kinds of numbers, I would think that there are at least very good estimates established about these kinds of expenses.

I don't just think, I know they're not included because most transactions as I described (in post #17) happen at the local markets where the locals buy their goods every day.  Those markets have many stalls (the one in my old neighbourhood in Saigon has about 200 and it isn't a very large market), each is owned by one family and there's not one book of receipts among all of them. 

So, unless the government places one bureaucrat in front of each stall with a calculator, there's absolutely no way for the authority to come up with an estimation.  The vendors are the only ones who can tell, but why would they bother?

Well, I don’t know about the numbers you cited, but in general, governments spend a lot of money and effort to have a pretty good idea how the money inside their borders is spent. The reasons you give just make it harder to obtain numbers, and to obtain precise numbers, but there are ways to establish pretty good estimates. As an example, drug dealers don’t give receipts nor keeps books neither, yet we have quite good statistics about the illegal drug trade.

I agree to a 100%  #26.
Being virtually Covid-free, is the absolute gold medal to present to foreign investors, new ones and to those, which might move out of China. With China anyway as the strongest trade partner, Vietnam can gain a lot more, than just backpackers spendings, with a high turnover.

Letting in some of the needed foreigners and investors to get trade and production up again, are likely the only goals. The visa list doesn't resemble anything like before tourist origins, but origins of trade and investment partners and political ties.

International tourism will be low, there is sure not enough to save it at it is, in Vietnam. Those surviving until autumn, also might have chance to survive a bit longer - until a vaccine/cure for covid. Especially s for Europe, about 80% of trips are planned, booked and paid about 1 year in advance Thousands not have received any compensations or cash back and even more are cut on incomes. And the biggest reason comes on top - they might face twice a quarantaine of 2 weeks - more  than the number of actual holidays they are entitled to.
Foreign industry pays a lot better than the cheap mass-tourism, so losses in tourism and locals earnings are compensated at a well better rate.

Kurterino wrote:

....
Well, I don’t know about the numbers you cited, but in general, governments spend a lot of money and effort to have a pretty good idea how the money inside their borders is spent. The reasons you give just make it harder to obtain numbers, and to obtain precise numbers, but there are ways to establish pretty good estimates. As an example, drug dealers don’t give receipts nor keeps books neither, yet we have quite good statistics about the illegal drug trade.

As in respect to drug dealers;
there are quite frequently numbers  published. I just don't take any of that. This numbers published especially about discovered, I would clueless suggest, that I might the only one, who doesn't take any illegal drugs, in the whole of Vietnam. And such report are not only once in a year, but often within a single week. And the government speaks about a few hundred addicts - not sure, if those numbers make any sense - sure not for me. There is no clue. There ain't even precise numbers to the figures of local residents

Tiny_63 wrote:

As in respect to drug dealers; ...