Living with Covid19

I am shocked punta Cana had a bed!   Let's see what happens Monday.

Yes you are correct that the Canadian Gov't will pick up the tab if you are unable to pay for the hotel for 14 days and you do not have family there to support you. Who are you going to visit?

Coronavirus: Scientists claim first human reinfected with Covid-19

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal … 85571.html

Coronavirus will be with us forever, SAGE scientist warns

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53875189

Coronavirus pandemic could be over within two years - WHO head

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53870798

I have been a sceptic that life will return to some normality after a vaccine for some months now. The uptake and the efficacy of any vaccine would only render say a maximum 50% of a population without mandatory vaccination, and in any case there have been doubts about the longevity of the protection too. Getting vaccinated regularly like the flu jabs for some protection may be the future, rather than like the smallpox jab gradually killing off the virus.

The scientific confirmation of reinfection substantaties earlier such media reports and immunity could be short lived.

Get used to a new way of living is perhaps an even stronger message now even if the WHO are being optimistic.

At this point I refuse to believe most of these  articles. TOO Much speculation and lack of confirmed scientific proof.

I am living each day the best and safest I can.

This is an interesting article:

https://eldia.com.do/el-credito-del-sector-privado-se-contrae-rd40-mil-millones/

Private sector credit contracts RD $ 40 billion

Financing. It was reduced in the period from March 2 to August 24. Protection. Savings in dollars increased 47% in the Dominican Republic.

Despite the fact that the monetary authorities have applied a reduction to the interest rate and disposed of liquidity, credit to the private sector has contracted by -3%, which is equivalent to 40 billion pesos.

This contraction was registered in the period from March 2 to August 24, indicated Ernesto Selman, vice president of the Regional Center for Sustainable Economic Strategies, explaining that this is due to the fact that in the economy there is no desire to assume more debt. “Many companies and households are having cash flow problems.

People do not want to take on new debt, because they do not have a clear perspective of what the future will be like, "said Selman.

In addition, he pointed out that the same thing happens in the case of financial entities, since they do not have a clear perspective of how clients will assume the debts.
Fiscal and monetary stimulus will not be the solution to the crisis, but may bring more problems in the next 12 months, Selman warned.

Pesos per dollar

While private credit declines, deposits in foreign currency increase. In fact, from July 2019 to July of this year, savings in dollars have experienced a growth of almost 47% in the period July 2019 to the same month of this year.

In that period, savings in dollars increased 2,874.9 million, reaching 9,063 million in that currency. Selman explained that when that happens it is an indication that households and companies are perceiving that there will be a potential depreciation of the local currency and convert their savings to dollars. This combination of factors together with lower income reflects a contracting economy, he said.

Debt requirement

On the other hand, the expert, when presenting the analysis of the 2020 Supplementary Budget, indicated that the country has a debt requirement of 10.503 million dollars, of which 4.2 billion have not yet been placed.

In addition, there will be lower tax revenues valued at RD $ 140,461 million compared to the 2020 Budget (original), while there is an increase in public spending of about 35 percent compared to the execution of 2019, equivalent to RD $ 265,693

Whats does this suggest for expats in DR?

Have a dollar account and change to pesos as needed for sure.

Don't opt for high interest peso saving accounts.

Beware of social unrest risks especially in cities with people with high debt exposure. Many Dominicans who live hand to mouth will suffer less imo. In the campo where they live off the land ditto.

DR will be no different to many countries where the covid19 effects on economic activity will spread to many people. Tourist areas will suffer worst imo where the local population will face the greatest hardships.

IMO DR will recover better than many countries despite devaluations and debt, providing it diversifies, as it can, away from too much reliance on tourism and at the same time reduces the public purse.

Interesting article and point with "away from too much reliance on tourism and at the same time reduces the public purse."

The domincan peso went from .019 to .017 to usd in last 5 months or so. Big move.

The USD is trading lower due to US Fed interest rate policy otherwise the peso would be lower.

DR is not the only country with massive new debts.

The key is fundamentals. Ability to be self resilient. Food sufficiency. The problem here is western desires are embedded and too many have been caught up in debt as a result. But the pueblo have not.

There will be very many countries which cant deal with the new debt burdens. It cant be ignored. The richer will have to contribute.

Covid19 vaccines:

Unfortunately the whole issue of covid19 vaccines is becoming commercialized and  politicised.

There is a big enough resistance to vaccines in the developed world and a rushed vaccine could make things worse.

The good news this week was that Russian medical scientists submitted their Phase 2 trial results to The Lancet for peer review and the results on a small sample were favourable. Problem lies with the size of the sample which was small just like Moderna. Oxford/Zeneca had 1000 in their phase 2 study compared to under 100 in the other two.

The real problem is that the safety and effectiveness of a vaccine will only be known once many thousands of volunteers of all ages and race are subjected to the vaccines and placebos and the results are presented and evaluated prior to any certification. to undertand the protection tine given could take a long time.

You can have a vaccine quickly and untested properly but will it be safe and effective long term for the population at large, and the wise minds say next year earliest.

The rest is spin for political and commercial reasons.

Richard Horton editor in cheif of The Lancet said it clearly:

“If we make a mistake and license a vaccine too early – just think – we have already got a growing anti-vaccine movement, which is extremely disturbing. We can't cut corners. There will not be a vaccine available for public use by the end of October. President Trump is simply wrong about that,” Horton said, adding: “I have no understanding why he is saying it. Because his advisers will surely be telling him that that's just impossible.”

Agreed. We do it right or don't do it.